Integrating household survey with inoperability input-output model of critical infrastructure systems: A case study of Hurricane Sandy.

Critical infrastructures are ubiquitous and their interdependencies have become more complex leading to their uncertain behaviors in the aftermath of disasters. The article develops an integrated economic input-output model that incorporates household-level survey data from Hurricane Sandy, which made its landfall in 2012. In this survey, 427 respondents who were living in the state of New Jersey during Hurricane Sandy were used in the study. The integration of their responses allowed us to show the probability and duration of various types of critical infrastructure failures due to a catastrophic hurricane event and estimate the economic losses across different sectors. The percentage of disruption and recovery period for various infrastructure systems were extracted from the survey, which were then utilized in the economic input-output model comprising of 71 economic sectors. Sectors were then ranked according to: (i) inoperability, the percentage in which a sector is disrupted relative to its ideal level, and (ii) economic loss, the monetary worth of business interruption caused by the disaster. With the combined infrastructure disruptions in the state of New Jersey, the model estimated an economic loss of $36 billion, which is consistent with published estimates. Results from this article can provide insights for future disaster preparedness and resilience planning.

Agent-based Modeling to Evaluate Human-Environment Interactions in Community Flood Risk Mitigation.

This article deals with household-level flood risk mitigation. We present an agent-based modeling framework to simulate the mechanism of natural hazard and human interactions, to allow evaluation of community flood risk, and to predict various adaptation outcomes. The framework considers each household as an autonomous, yet socially connected, agent. A Beta-Bernoulli Bayesian learning model is first applied to measure changes of agents' risk perceptions in response to stochastic storm surges. Then the risk appraisal behaviors of agents, as a function of willingness-to-pay for flood insurance, are measured. Using Miami-Dade County, Florida as a case study, we simulated four scenarios to evaluate the outcomes of alternative adaptation strategies. Results show that community damage decreases significantly after a few years when agents become cognizant of flood risks. Compared to insurance policies with pre-Flood Insurance Rate Maps subsidies, risk-based insurance policies are more effective in promoting community resilience, but it will decrease motivations to purchase flood insurance, especially for households outside of high-risk areas. We evaluated vital model parameters using a local sensitivity analysis. Simulation results demonstrate the importance of an integrated adaptation strategy in community flood risk management.

Ecological-economic assessment of the effects of freshwater flow in the Florida Everglades on recreational fisheries.

This research develops an integrated methodology to determine the economic value to anglers of recreational fishery ecosystem services in Everglades National Park that could result from different water management scenarios. The study first used bio-hydrological models to link managed freshwater inflows to indicators of fishery productivity and ecosystem health, then link those models to anglers' willingness-to-pay for various attributes of the recreational fishing experience and monthly fishing effort. This approach allowed us to estimate the foregone economic benefits of failing to meet monthly freshwater delivery targets. The study found that the managed freshwater delivery to the Park had declined substantially over the years and had fallen short of management targets. This shortage in the flow resulted in the decline of biological productivity of recreational fisheries in downstream coastal areas. This decline had in turn contributed to reductions in the overall economic value of recreational ecosystem services enjoyed by anglers. The study estimated the annual value of lost recreational services at $68.81 million. The losses were greater in the months of dry season when the water shortage was higher and the number of anglers fishing also was higher than the levels in wet season. The study also developed conservative estimates of implicit price of water for recreation, which ranged from $11.88 per AF in November to $112.11 per AF in April. The annual average price was $41.54 per AF. Linking anglers' recreational preference directly to a decision variable such as water delivery is a powerful and effective way to make management decision. This methodology has relevant applications to water resource management, serving as useful decision-support metrics, as well as for policy and restoration scenario analysis.

Implications of a valuation study for ecological and social indicators associated with Everglades restoration.

The Everglades of south Florida, although degraded, imparts vital ecosystem benefits, including contributions to high quality drinking water supplies and habitat for a number of threatened and endangered species. Restoration of the Everglades can improve the provision of these benefits but also may impose tradeoffs with competing societal demands. This study focuses on understanding public preferences for Everglades restoration and estimating the willingness to pay (WTP) values for restored ecosystem services (ES) through the implementation of a discrete choice experiment (DCE). We collected data from 2302 respondents from the general public from an online survey designed to elicit WTP values for selected ecological and social attributes associated with Everglades restoration scenarios. We compare the findings to results from earlier studies (Milon et al., 1999; Milon and Scrogin, 2005), which also estimated WTP values among Floridians for Everglades restoration. For some attributes, WTP for Everglades restoration appears to have slightly increased while for others WTP appears to have decreased. We estimated statewide aggregate WTP values for components of species population restoration up to $2B over 10 years. Several factors impeded a direct comparison of current and historical WTP values, including time elapsed, different samples and sampling methods- which may have implications for integrating ecosystem service valuation studies into water management decisions.

Understanding household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information: evidence from survey responses.

Risk information is critical to adopting mitigation measures, and seeking risk information is influenced by a variety of factors. An essential component of the recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida is to provide homeowners with pertinent risk information to facilitate hurricane risk mitigation activities. We develop an analytical framework to understand household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information through allowing an intensive home inspection. An empirical analysis is used to identify major drivers of household preferences to receive personalized information regarding recommended hurricane risk mitigation measures. A variety of empirical specifications show that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow inspection to seek information. However, households with more members living in the home and households who live in manufactured/mobile homes are less likely to allow inspection. While findings imply MSFH program's ability to link incentives offered by private and public agencies in promoting mitigation, households that face a disproportionately higher level of risk can get priority to make the program more effective.

Provision of a wildfire risk map: informing residents in the wildland urban interface.

Wildfires in the wildland urban interface (WUI) are an increasing concern throughout the western United States and elsewhere. WUI communities continue to grow and thus increase the wildfire risk to human lives and property. Information such as a wildfire risk map can inform WUI residents of potential risks and may help to efficiently sort mitigation efforts. This study uses the survey-based contingent valuation (CV) method to examine annual household willingness to pay (WTP) for the provision of a wildfire risk map. Data were collected through a mail survey of the East Mountain WUI area in the State of New Mexico (USA). The integrated empirical approach includes a system of equations that involves joint estimation of WTP values, along with measures of a respondent's risk perception and risk mitigation behavior. The median estimated WTP is around U.S. $12 for the annual wildfire risk map, which covers at least the costs of producing and distributing available risk information. Further, providing a wildfire risk map can help address policy goals emphasizing information gathering and sharing among stakeholders to mitigate the effects of wildfires.

Willingness to pay for safe drinking water: Evidence from Parral, Mexico.

A referendum-format contingent valuation (CV) survey is used to elicit household willingness to pay responses for safe and reliable drinking water in Parral, Mexico. Households currently adopt a variety of averting and private investment choices (e.g., bottled water consumption, home-based water treatment, and installation of water storage facilities) to adapt to the existing water supply system. These revealed behaviors indicate the latent demand for safer and more reliable water services, which is corroborated by the CV survey evidence. Validity findings include significant scope sensitivity in WTP for water services. Further, results indicate that households are willing to pay from 1.8% to 7.55% of reported household income above their current water bill for safe and reliable drinking water services, depending upon the assumptions about response uncertainty.

Role of information and communication networks in malaria survival.

BACKGROUND: Quite often symptoms of malaria go unrecognized or untreated. According to the Multilateral Initiative on Malaria, 70% of the malaria cases that are treated at home are mismanaged. Up to 82% of all malaria episodes in sub-Saharan Africa are treated outside the formal health sector. Fast and appropriate diagnosis and treatment of malaria is extremely important in reducing morbidity and mortality. METHOD: Data from 70 different countries is pooled together to construct a panel dataset of health and socio-economic variables for a time span of (1960-2004). The generalized two-stage least squares and panel data models are used to investigate the impact of information and communication network (ICN) variables on malaria death probability. The intensity of ICN is represented by the number of telephone main lines per 1,000 people and the number of television sets per 1,000 people. RESULTS: The major finding is that the intensity of ICN is associated with reduced probability of deaths of people that are clinically identified as malaria infected. The results are robust for both indicators i.e. interpersonal and mass communication networks and for all model specifications examined. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that information and communication networks can substantially scale up the effectiveness of the existing resources for malaria prevention. Resources spent in preventing malaria are far less than needed. Expanded information and communication networks will widen the avenues for community based "participatory development", that encourages the use of local information, knowledge and decision making. Timely information, immediate care and collective knowledge based treatment can be extremely important in reducing child mortality and achieving the millennium development goal.